Lat 39.328, Lon -120.183
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Two operational charts updated every load from the same Open-Meteo ensemble. Cumulative rain over 7 days drives the mud-delay decision; sustained wind + gust spikes drive the equipment-down call. Click any model to compare its prediction against the ensemble.
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Daily highs/lows and precipitation are averaged across 4 global weather models. Snow accumulation is then physics-corrected against hourly air temp and soil temperature — Open-Meteo's raw snowfall is reclassified as rain when ground or air is too warm to hold snow.
Curve above = next 24 hours · Track below = scroll right for the full 16-day hourly forecast — every hour, with temp, chance of precip, and inches of rain or snow when it's coming.
Tracking incoming weather · auto-refresh every 10 min
Forecast radar above + verify storm tracking upstream stations · We confirm every storm.
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HD Radar: RainViewer 5-min composites · NWS loop refreshes every 10 min · Satellite every 5 min · Pinch to zoom on mobile
California Department of Water Resources / CDEC measurements from automated SWE (snow water equivalent) sensors across the Sierra Nevada. Compares to historical April 1 average. The chart updates daily.
What this actually means for the Sierra: The two most authoritative seasonal forecasting systems — NOAA CPC and ECMWF S5 — both lean toward a wetter-than-normal winter for Northern California, with neutral-to-weak La Niña conditions expected. La Niña winters in the Sierra are notoriously unpredictable: the storm track gets pushed north toward Washington and Oregon, but when atmospheric river events do dip south, they often deliver outsized snowfall to Tahoe and the Donner Summit corridor.
What to plan for if you're a snow-removal crew: Don’t assume a quiet winter just because La Niña is forecast. Three of the last six La Niña winters delivered above-average Sierra snowfall, including the historic 2022–23 season. Budget for a normal-to-active season, pre-position equipment by mid-November, expect February-March to be the busiest months, and plan for an extended spring melt running into early summer.
What to plan for if you ski: The forecasts above are probabilities, not predictions. Snowfall in the Sierra is dominated by the timing of a handful of large atmospheric river events each winter. Even a "below normal" forecast season can deliver one or two season-saving storms. Watch the 16-day Open-Meteo forecast above for AR signals.
Authority note: NOAA CPC outlooks have a documented 50–60% skill score for Sierra winter precipitation forecasts at the 3-month range. ECMWF S5 ensemble offers similar skill. Cross-reference both before committing to seasonal plans. The CPC outlook updates monthly on the third Thursday — the figures above reflect the most recent issued outlook.
Pick a model. Pick a day.
What we run on the backend with our 9-model ensemble, you can run yourself on the front end. Pick rain, thunder, snow, wind, CAPE — any layer. Pick ECMWF, GFS, ICON, HRRR, NAM — any model. Pick any of the next 16 days. Watch each model diverge or agree. When they all line up, the forecast is solid. When they fan out, you're staring at uncertainty — plan for both.
A median of forty-seven stations beats a three-kilometre grid average. Every time.
Upstream eyes. A storm is the wind that carries it. Walk that wind backward.
Every forecast we publish gets backchecked against what actually showed up at the gauge. Gold dashed = what we said. White solid = what actually happened. The colored badge between each pair of points shows the daily miss (Δ): green ≤ 3°F, amber 3–6°F, red > 6°F. Same color scale on the precipitation chart with 0.1″ / 0.3″ thresholds. The learning engine tracks bias per model and applies correction to future forecasts.
M3+ within 100 mi can trigger rockfall on Donner Summit, gas-line inspection, and OSHA jobsite check. Sierra sits on active fault lines — watch this card before any morning mobilization.
Built so people are informed and stay safe. Off the road during storms. Out of the path of wildfire. Public safety is the standard.
Open-Meteo serves the spine forecast plus an 8-model ensemble: ECMWF, ECMWF-AI, GFS, ICON (DWD), JMA, GEM, UK Met Office, and CMA. NOAA HRRR refines the next 18 hours at 3 km resolution. NWS gridpoint data layers in NDFD probabilities and active alerts from api.weather.gov.
Per-hour ensemble mean of CAPE, Lifted Index, CIN, and precip probability across GFS, GFS-HRRR, ICON, ECMWF, and Météo-France. Score = CAPE (0–40 pts · J/kg ÷ 62.5) + Lifted Index (0–30 pts · −LI × 5) + Precip Prob (0–20 pts · prob × 0.2) + WMO storm codes 95–99 (+30 pts) − CIN suppression (0 to −20 pts · CIN ÷ 10). Capped at 100. Then modified by the Heavy Logic Engine: humidity charge × lapse rate × trigger × bulk shear. Confidence strip below the chart shows CAPE spread across models — narrow = agreement, wide = uncertainty. Refreshed every 30 minutes.
Model probability is fused with local PWS observations and upstream confirmation along the reverse 500 mb steering current. Each hour gets one of five labels — CONFIRMED, OBSERVED, WATCH, MODEL, or CLEAR — so you know whether a forecast is just numbers on a screen or actually being seen on the ground.
Live observations come from the NWS station chain (primary), MADIS, NDBC marine buoys (when coastal), and Synoptic Data API (when a public token is configured). Coverage expands automatically (50 → 100 → 150 → 200 mi) when the local network is sparse. Median delta vs the model becomes the network bias correction applied to the next 6 hours of forecast.
~1,200 ALERTCalifornia cameras (PG&E + UCSD), live NIFC incidents, CAL FIRE active perimeters, and NASA FIRMS satellite hotspots. Smoke direction is cross-checked against local wind alignment so you see what's coming before the official evacuation order.
Caltrans CWWP2 District 3 chain control plus 30+ live highway cameras across I-80, US-50, SR-89, SR-267, SR-28, and US-395. CHP traffic incidents and MagnifEye aggregator round out the road picture. Chain control tiers (R0/R1/R2/R3) surface at the top of the page when conditions warrant.
Live mountain webcams from 25 ski resorts (Tahoe basin + Eastern Sierra + national destinations) plus regional avalanche forecast centers — Sierra Avalanche Center for Tahoe, CAIC for Colorado, NWAC for the Pacific Northwest, and others. 5-tier danger scale: Low → Moderate → Considerable → High → Extreme. Banner alerts fire at Considerable or higher, always with a "View ski cams →" link.
Every 15 minutes the brain consumes everything above and decides GO / STAGE / STAND-DOWN for snow ops and excavation ops separately. Wildfire ALERT pushes excavation to STAGE; R3 chain control pushes both to STAND-DOWN; HIGH avalanche danger surfaces a coordination advisory with Palisades patrol. Built so the foreman knows before the crew is mobilized in the wrong direction.
Every API call is cached with sensible TTLs (forecast 15 min, ensemble 60 min, archive 24 hr). A three-stage rate-limit fallback keeps the page useful even when an upstream API is throttled. Everything is location-agnostic — drop a pin and the entire page reforecasts.
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